Before we start: Don't take my word for it. Look at the charts yourself.

Assumptions

For a moment. Let's pretend Binance is a healthy CEX engaging solely in best practices when it comes to the handling of customer funds, fair conditions for all traders on their platform, no insider trading, no fractional reserving.

And for a moment let's just ignore all rumors regarding a huge Binance fall out and instead let's examine Binance's CEX token not from a FUDD (fear-uncertainty-doubt-doom) perspective but from pure chart analysis and from fundamental analysis.

The pairs

I want to invite us all to zoom into some prominent pairs: BNBUSDT, BNBBTC and XMRBNB.

We could add more pairs, but they would likely show a similar picture (e.g. BNBETH, BCHBNB, LTCBNB,..).

What they all have in common: A lot of weakness can be seen across all charts. And a big move seems to be inevitable within the next 30 days.

XMRBNB

painted a huge IHS (inverse head and shoulders pattern) on longer time farmes (1W, 3D) which usually signals a trend reversal. We already had a re-test of the breakout and now have clear skies above. Looking at x10 for Monero against BNB.

Extremely bullish for Monero. Extremly bearish for BNB.

BNBBTC

For the longest time BNB only knew one direction aginst BTC and that was up. For around one year we see that this trend is broken and ever since the price went down. For 4 months BNB formed a plateau but recently longer term indicators like 1W and 3D PSAR point heavily downwards for BNB. While XMRBTC already confirmed the outbreak BNBBTC sees itself at the lowest possible price before sagging.

Bullish for BTC. Bearish for BNB

BNBUSDT

due to BTC's stability in USD for quite some time this chart looks partially similar than the BNBBTC chart. It is hovering slightly above $200 for around 4 months. Any break down below $200 (-5%) would take out any floor that BNB ever had seen in its trading history.

Neutral for USD. Potentially extremely bearish for BNB.

Fundamental analysis

Traders

One source of demand for BNB tokens, were lower fees when trading on Binance. Since the FTX debacle trading on CEX generally decreased. Trading volumes around the board show the same trend. But Binance was hit harder than the competition loosing huge amounts of market share over the last 10 months. Traders like liquidiy. They always need to find a balance between associated risk and liquidity. Which tells us that traders seem to price in an additional risk factor when trading on Binance that is bigger as the small reward they gain from holding BNB on Binance, which exposes them to CEX risk and token risk.

Regulators

Many regulators around the world seem to have problems with Binance, which means Binance also has problems with their on- and off ramps in various jurisdictions (one of their selling proposition over other CEX). The market of Binance shrinks and their now forced investment in developing countries might pay off if at all - much later than expected. In general the ROI in said countries seems to be far worse than in western countries.

Personal note regarding regulation: I am of the opinion that regulations are often misguided and more often than not harm the general public and try to protect monopolies and the status of the already wealthy. Regulators should keep cryptocurrencies, defi and market adoption alone. BUT: They should heavily regulate CEX that also work as custodians for million of people around the globe.