The objective of this post is to show that no one can predict the market, regardless of how good their analysis might seem.

I take so-called analysis from YouTuber/Influencer Ben Cowen between 2019 and 2020 and show how none of them predicted 2021's ATH up to 12 months before it. Bear in mind that TA is supposed to help you in the long run, so 12 months of a slightly right prediction should be on the plate.

I have nothing against him, personally. I chose him because he is highly regarded in the people that consume crypto content. I'm not making any judgement on such content nor about his personality or whatever. I will only show what he predicted and what actually happened, as simple as that.

I will try to make this short. All info is referenced either in the figure titles or in the bullet texts.

Methodology

I take videos from each month between November 2019 and December 2020, aka before and during the start of last bull run, and summarize the predictions. I then compare the predictions to what actually happened. I focus on BTC and it's All Time High (ATH) and in when it was reached.

BTC ATH predictions made in 2019-2020

• 14th of Nov/2019: BTC ATH's could potentially be in the $140k-$150k EOY 2022, as per the chart below (the actual price was around $47,800 by that time):

Fig. 1 - watch?v=MpxxioVagcs, around 9min

• 21st of Nov/2019: the same prediction. ATH will be around $150k by 2022 (watch?v=I5I7SQdl9S4, 8:53s). It's also the first video where he mentions his hypothesis of a lengthening cycle.
• Unknown day, Nov/2019: same prediction, but by the end of 2022. He used a different chart this time:

Fig. 2 - watch?v=jy8CtyjA1WY, around 9:22s

He continues to say that there are evidences of a lengthening cycle. He also gives a prediction of 100k with an error of +- 1 year for the cycle, i.e. between 2022 and 2024 (around 8:44s). Considering the cycle as 4 years, he said that the price could be achieved in 75% of that time. A data scientist in a lab just had a heart attack. Around 15:22s, he literally draws a graph pattern in the figure, "just for fun", to check how things could potentially be.

• 17th of Dec/2019: same predictions summed up (watch?v=HDt3_oNYhEg).
• 31st of Dec/2019: same prediction, but now between 2023 and 2024:

Fig. 3 - watch?v=39RTh3Wyp3U, around 6:54s

• 25th of Jan/2020: ATH of $70k around the beginning of 2023 (watch?v=i1li3ShY0hA, around 3:12s)
• 9th of Feb/2020: ATH of $100k by 2022's end. Price in Dec/2021, when the actual ATH happened, was around 20k:

Fig. 4 - watch?v=lu36NilwZoM, 4:28s

• 7th of Mar/2020: $174k in Dec 2022. Price in Dec/2021, when the actual ATH happened, is around 20k**:**

Fig. 5 - watch?v=ETzng0HLFWg, 7:53s

• 27th of Mar/2020: $100k by 2023 (watch?v=WUPy3b3wGYc, 8:33s)
• 28th of Mar/2020: $140k by 2023's end. The 2021's peak that happened is neglected:

Fig. 6 - watch?v=AHuKHmeJf-I, 5:13s

• 30th of Apr/2020: $140k by August 2023 (watch?v=bFOxdT6aY90, 12:20s). Price when the $69k peak actually happened is predicted as around $30k is his video.
• 8th of May/2020: $100k-$200k by August 2023. 2021 real peak is neglected**:**

Fig. 7 - watch?v=5b9r7VW46eQ, around 7min

• 12th of May/2020: $100k-$200k by August 2023 (watch?v=_XcKrQXEdwY, 5:24s)
• 23rd of June/2020: $198k EOY 2021, as per this chart:

Fig. 8 - watch?v=Mupv95PVLQg, 6:54s

• 1st of August/2020: $140k EOY 2022:

Fig. 9 - watch?v=N4GJ-LfA3D4, 6:26s

As for now I will refrain from posting pictures to avoid making the post longer:

• 26th of Sep/2020: $140k EOY 2022 (watch?v=Apc3nprtmeI, 3:07s)
• 30th of Sep/2020: "Next blow out top of six figures" (watch?v=YCFd6jSksbE, around 5:30s). Next blow after this was $69k, as we know
• 8th of Oct/2020: $140k by mid 2023 (watch?v=barjn43-x1U, 8:45s), 2021 ATH not predicted.
• 30th of Oct/2020: $140k between Q4 2022 and Q2 2024 (watch?v=barjn43-x1U, around 8:15s). That's a year and a half of time span. 2021's ATH was not predicted in this video as well.
• 14th of Nov/2020: $117k EOY 2022/beginning of 2023 (watch?v=OS389bR6uww, 7:13s)
• 17th of Nov/2020: $140k by mid 2023 (watch?v=nf68hN-2z4E, 5:53s)
• 5th of Dec/2020: $80k by Q2 2023 (watch?v=qVSM-lUfWPY, 12:12s). 2021 peak not predicted
• 20th of Dec/2020: $100k EOY 2021 (watch?v=6Xr3od36aqg, 2:11s)
• 27th of Dec/2020: $150k by mid 2023 (watch?v=0Xf-xSpbtVM, 5:44s). 2021 peak not predicted
• 30th of Dec/2020: $200k EOY 2024 (watch?v=w0xJu6Geyq0, 3:26s).

The Lengthening Cycle (LC) and Diminishing Returns Hypothesis

Another hypothesis he has is that this cycle would take longer than 4 years and that BTC's ATH would be reached not in 2021, but later on and with a diminished return when compared with the ones gotten from last runs. The problem is that this hypothesis completely denied 2021's peak, as it predicts an ATH of $100k in mid-2023 whereas Dec/2021 was predicted as around $30k:

Fig. 10 - watch?v=J2FAHk6mWF8, 7:14s

Time will tell.

So reddito321, what is your point?

TL;DR: As good as a so-called analysis seems to be, it won't predict the market.

One of the highest regarded YouTubers in the community has been wrong countless times and did not predict 2021's peak up to a year before it.

If you like this kind of content and follow it, good on you, but know that you're watching entertainment only and no tips should be taken seriously.

Also bear in mind that the point here is that 2021's peak was not predicted. If we reach $140k by mid 2023 it also does not mean that he was right. He predicted many ATHs in many different time spans. If one predicts countless scenarios, one of them might eventually show up true. That doesn't make that person gospel.

What he is predicting today might not show up true in 12 months. Invest what you can afford to lose and avoid high risks.

Finally and about all so-called influencers: if they're really good in forecasting the market, they'll be out there enjoying their richness, not posting YT videos.

Godspeed!