This is in response to the post titled "You're gonna hate this".

I feel like the information from that post is misleading and causes unnecessary fear.

The stock market

OP says the stock market is "hopelessly overvalued" since it's in a sharp uptrend. The image they used was a screenshot of the S&P 500, with a LINEAR scale. Take a look at it with a log scale:

Not so sharp now

OP posted a screenshot, knit-picking the dot com bubble and mortgage crisis, implying that there must be a crash/bear market every 10 years. Take a look at this chart, where I overlayed the move from 1950-2000. A 50 year time period where the stock market sometimes went "sharply up". This isn't even accounting for inflation. Obviously, if trillions of dollars are printed, the stock market will seem like it is going parabolic.

S&P Overlayed with move from 1950-2000

As a final note, I suggest you watch Ben Cowen's video where he shows the stock market divided by the money supply. It's very interesting.

Market Cap

OP argued that the crypto market caps were too high. I think market cap in crypto is somewhat useful, but also very silly metric in some cases, especially in markets with low liquidity, where it is very easy to manipulate (like many alt coins mentioned in the post).

Market Cap = Price * Supply

Knowing this, it is much easier to influence lower liquidity markets/coins.

Example #1: If I create 1B poop coins and sell 1 of them for $1, the market cap will be 1B.

Example #2: Let's say poopcoin has a supply of 1M. The current price is $1. There is 1 poopcoin for sale at $1 in the order book and the next poopcoin for sale in the order book is for $1.50.

If I only buy 1 poopcoin, my $1 order will increase the price of the coin to $1.50, thereby increasing the market cap from 1M to 1.5M.

On the other hand, if there are 500k poopcoins for sale at $1 and I buy 400k, the price will remain at $1, meaning my $400k order wouldn't have moved the market cap at all.

The point is, you can't compare crypto market caps to stock market caps. They're two very different entities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I think OP is spreading unnecessary FUD.

The Fed isn't stupid. I don’t believe they will purposefully cause a recession. Wall street is just reacting to the fact that rates might go up, which is causing them to de-risk.

Obviously, there is a possibility for us to go into a bear market, I'm not denying that. I'm just saying that we don't know whats going to happen and I don't think spreading unnecessary fear is going to help.