Why investing and trading isn't a 50/50 game

Investing in cryptocurrency, or stocks, or anything really, sounds simple. If you buy and sell at profit, you win. If you buy and sell at a loss, you lose. Essentially, a crypto can increase and decrease in value. Also a 50% chance of upside and a 50% chance of a downside.

You'd say that because of this, 50% should be gaining money and 50% of people wouldn't make money. Yet it is known that roughly 80-90% of people that invest, lose money in the end.

One reason why this isn't true, is for the famous "buy high, sell low" phenomenon. People feel confident and buy more as things rise. People sell (more) if a huge decline is happening in a time frame. Getting in at the wrong time and exiting at the wrong time.

A way to counter this is to invest and hold for longer periods (1-5 years). Another one is DCA, having a set schedule to invest and do this consistently at the same time, day, moment, without looking at prices.

On a high time frame, you can safely assume that buying in low price ranges, low rsi, low volume, etc. is best. And selling when everyone seems to buy that cryptocurrency as everyone talks about it.

Another aspect is, that if you're right 50% of the time, the sizd of your winnings and losses matter too.

Expected return = probability(win) * return - (1-probability)*loss. If you win 20 and lose 30 both equally, your estimated return is - 5.

On top of that, being right 6 times in a row has a probability of 1.5625%. So making a winning trade 6 times in a row.

Unless you know very well what you are buying and when, most people shouldn't even try trading.

Time is your best friend. Patience your worst enemy.

Trying to beat the market is hard.

Investing and waiting is easy. Given that you can be patient and relaxed when things fluctuate up or down.

Best is, that your investments bore you. Than you'll be having no trouble to wait. And then, one day you'll discover that your investments are up!