Why I'm shorting Luna (part 2)

This is an update to my perpetual short on Luna. Increased position with adjusted entry at $101. Exit at $70-80.

Anchor Protocol's vote to slowly decrease UST APY has passed, and there will presumably be a gradual monthly decrease of 1.5% at most with a hard cap of 15% (please correct me if I'm wrong).

HOWEVER, the yield reserve is draining at a pace of ~$130 million per month. At that rate, the yield reserve will be completely depleted within the next 3 months if not sooner. If deposits still heavily outweigh loans at that point, 2 scenarios will likely occur:

1) LFG will top up yield reserves again as they did roughly 1 month ago using pre-mined Luna tokens that will be injected into circulating supply and sold (Just like the 50 million Luna that was injected into LFG to start the thing). Or

2) No top-up, meaning high APY will be unsustainable even with the vote to decrease yield. This means most UST stakers who were in it for the APY will be looking for better rates.

Both of these scenarios will in all likelihood lead to a sell off of Luna either to fund yield reserve or as a result of selling UST.

All conspiracy and ponzi theories aside, does this make sense? Or am I missing something?