Why do crypto influencers claim to be right all the time? Guess what, they are not - no surprises there. They use a old scam trick to constantly increase their credibility and reputation among followers

Crypto influencers (CI) are the worst. They shill you their bags and do not care about your financial situation. Now that we've got that out of the way - How do these influencers try to make you feel they are always right?

Well, just like the saying goes "do not put all your eggs in one basket", CIs bet on multiple horses over a certain time frame. Of course, a market can only go (1) up, (2) down, (3) crab. Making a prediction, therefore, has a relatively high success rate.

You'll read stuff like "coin XYZ might pump/dump if this event takes place". All very vague and easy to brush off and downplay when the CI is wrong. They might even delete their post about it.

This approach is known as retrospective cherry-picking and builds on hindsight bias.

They start with making reasonable predictions for the three possible scenarios to a large audience, let's say 1000. One of these predictions will come true, and they push that specific prediction to their following. Some people will call BS right away, however, others will wrongfully think you are right, let's say with a success rate of a modest 10% (100 people).

The CI now repeats the above process, picking 1000 new people for him/her special expert newsletter + the 100 people that are already hooked. Rinse and repeat, and let your community do the marketing for you.

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Obviously, take these numbers with a grain of salt, they are only serving as the example but clearly show how the scheme is unfolding. Real world data is often much more complex, as some smart Redditors will point out. However, notice that the "followers" make up an increasing amount of the total (new) outreach.

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TLDR: Highsight 20/20, especially when you make predictions for every possible scenario. Don't fall for the tricks of crypto influencers.

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