What will it take for a bull to return

Do you think its as simple as a historical halving cycle and we should reach ATH about a year after the next halving as we have in past cycles?

Do we need regulation to assist with risk and have more institutional money flow in to blast off?

Does something like the end to the war in Ukraine and shipping obstacles for grain to ease so the global economy can ease inflation?

Curious what other factors need to happen for the bear to end. While I personally think we will need global conditions to improve and the halving isn’t enough. As long as there are layoffs, high inflation, wars, poverty, people struggling, there just isn’t money to flow into risk on assets. And I fear the direction the US is taking with regulation will move everything offshore so exchanges don’t have to deal with it and that will be even less money allowed to enter the market.