What if... There is no higher high in the next years? Possible scenarios.

In cycle we trust, but what if the cycle breaks?

There is no greater narrative in crypto than the Bitcoin cycle. Not long after the halving (next is due in April 2024) the market rallies to new highs. By now we had 3 full and very identifiable patterns and the next rally is a fact for most here. But what could happen if the next two years come and go and no new all time highs are achieved for Bitcoin, Ethereum or any other "major" crypto?

Option 1: Big money leaves. Crypto is essentially dead / extreme niche.

The promise of massive returns is dead. Smart money leaves and the price bleeds for months / years until only people who need decentralisation and censorship resistance are left. Crypto becomes basically what it was in the beginning - a way to conduct "less legal" business. BTC is at 1k and is not considered a bargain.

Option 2: We don't see higher highs, but the price is pretty stable for years! Fair value achieved?

People who dream of 10x returns leave the space or move to extremely volatile small cap coins. But institutional money is flowing in slowly. BTC became digital gold. The price will probably move up over time with inflation as other coins die out. Maybe ETH manages to survive as silver to bitcoins gold. There is no new digital economy.

Option 3: We still hope. The bull will come and bring us to 500k!

As the cycle does not play out as expected, new narratives emerge. "Yes, but it is because of the war", "Yes, but if you look at my technical analysis it was always clear that this cycle would start later". It is Christmas of 2025 and the price of bitcoin is around 25k. Most people are still holding their bags and waiting for the bull. Maybe it will come any day now, maybe never.