What happens to BTC, ETH, and the S&P 500 after rate hikes in 2022

So I decided to track what the price action of BTC, ETH, and the S&P 500 has been so far this year with the 5 rate hikes if 2022. I’ve seen a lot of “if it’s x, it will pump/dump” so I wanted to see the data.

March 17, 2022: + 0.25. Rates go from 0.25 to 0.50%

BTC: 3/17/22

• $40,950

ETH: 3/17/22

•$2,814

S&P: 3/17/22

•$4,463

1 week later: 3/24/22.

• BTC: $44,337. % change: + 8.27%

• ETH: $3,111. % change: + 10.55%

• S&P: $4,543. % change: +1.79

1 month later: 4/17/22

• BTC: $39,684. % change: - 3.09%

• ETH: $2,988. % change: + 6.18

• S&P: $4,391. % change: - 1.61

May 5, 2022: +0.50 rate hike. Rates go from 0.50 to 1.00%

BTC: 5/5/22

• $36,539.

ETH: 5/5/22

• $2,747.

S&P: 5/5/22

• $4,123.

1 week later: 5/12/22:

• BTC: $28,941. % change -20.79%

• ETH: $1,954. % change -28.86

• S&P: $4,023. % change -2.42

1 month later: 6/5/22

• BTC: $29,899. % change -18.17

• ETH: $1804. % change -34.32

• S&P: $4,121. % change -0.05

June 6, 2022: + 0.75 rate hike. Rates go from 1.00 to 1.75%

BTC: 6/6/22

• $31,350. % change from day before: +4.85%

ETH: 6/6/22

• $1,858. + 3% increase

S&P: 6/6/22

• $4,160. +.94%

1 week later: 6/13/22

• BTC: $22,494. % change -28.25%

• ETH: $1,205. % change - 35.14%

• S&P: $3,735. % change - 10.22

1 month later: 7/6/22:

• BTC: $20,541. % change -34.48%

• ETH: $1,186. % change -36.17%

• S&P: $3,902. % change -6.2%

July 27, 2022: + 0.75 rate hike. Rates go from 1.75 to 2.50%

BTC: 7/27/22

• $22,949. % change from 3 weeks ago + 11.72%

ETH: 7/27/22

• $1,636. % change from 3 weeks ago + 37.94%

S&P: 7/27/22

• $4,072. % change from 3 weeks ago + 4.36

1 week later: 8/3/22

• BTC: $22,825. % change - 0.54%

• ETH: $1,620. % change - 0.98%

• S&P: $4,151. % change + 1.94%

1 month later: 8/27/22

• BTC: $ 20,051. % change - 12.63%

• ETH: $1,494. % change - 8.68%

• S&P: $4,030. % change -1.03%

September 21, 2022: 0.75 rate hike. Rates go from 2.50 to 3.25%.

BTC:9/21/22

• $19,432. % change from 3.5 weeks prior :- 1.03

ETH: 9/21/22

• $1,327. % change - 11.78

S&P: 9/21/22

• $3,757. % change - 6.77

1 week later: 9/28/22

• BTC: $19,395. % change - 0.19%

• ETH: $1,335. % change + 0.62%

• S&P: $3,640. % change - 3.11%

1 month later: 10/21/22

• BTC: $19,173. % change - 1.33%

• ETH: $1,300. % change - 2.03%

• S&P: $3,752. % change - 0.13%

Summary

Of the 5 rate hikes in 2022: (< 10% change is small. 10-25% is a moderate change. > 25% change is large)

BTC

•day of rate hike compared to 1 month after prior hike: 1 small positive % gain, 1 small negative % loss, and 1 moderate positive % gain.

• 1 week from rate hike: 1 small positive % gain, 2 small negative % loss, 1 moderate negative % loss, and 1 large negative % loss.

• 1 month from rate hike: 2 small negative % losses, 2 moderate negative % losses, and 1 large negative % loss.

ETH

•day of rate hike compared to 1 month after prior hike: 1 small positive % gain, 1 moderate positive % gain, and 1 large positive % gain.

• 1 week from rate hike: 1 small positive % gain, 1 small negative % loss, 1 moderate positive % gain, and 2 large negative % losses.

• 1 month from rate hike: 1 small negative % loss, 2 moderate negative % losses, and 2 large negative % losses.

S&P 500

•day of rate hike compared to 1 month after prior hike: 2 small positive % gains, 1 small negative loss%.

• 1 week from rate hike: 2 small positive % gains and 3 small negative % losses.

• 1 month from rate hike: 5 small negative % losses.

TL:DR

• BTC: does decent on day of announced hike, not so good 1 week after a hike, and still not good 1 month after a hike.

• ETH: does well on day of announced hike, can swing high or low 1 week after but is more volatile than BTC, down worse than BTC 1 month after a hike.

• S&P: small movements as expected compared to crypto. Does well on day of announced hike, split 1 week after, down 1 month after.

Sources:

rate hikes

ETH chart

BTC chart

S&P chart

Edit: this data does not imply causation or anything like it. This is simply the data we have for the hikes of 2022. The overwhelming majority of data collected doesn’t tell a clear story in many different cases and with so many coexisting variables, this correlation is minor at best.