Uptober is about to Begin! A look at Bitcoin's performance over the last 10 Octobers.

Uptober is just about to begin!

Now, some of may have heard the little name for October within the Crypto space and there's a good reason for it.

Using the data from Coingecko, over the past 10 years of data, BTC has gone up in price across the duration of October 8 times out of 10. This is the joint highest across the year, with February also up 8 times out of 10. At this point I thought I'd go and find the data from 2011.

Bitcoin took an 11% drop. It started at $12 and finished the month at $11. $11!!! The volume at this point is absolutely tiny, however. A a result we'll discount this single year from the data.

Now, going up is fine, but lets look at by how much. So, I'm afraid to say (or excited to say..?) that mathematically, the best month year on year for gains in BTC is November, so we can look forward to that too!

BTC's worst October performance was back in 2014, where it dropped by 15%, from... get this... around $380 per Bitcoin, to $320 per Bitcoin. Can you imagine being involved in crypto all those years ago and being able to see it now. Our lives would be totally different.

Anywho... other than that and 2018 when BTC lost 4% of it's value, the other 8 Octobers have all lead to BTC making Gainssss. The smallest gain would be 2022, with a gain of 5% from roughly $19500 up to $20500. Our biggest gains (c'mon, let's dream!) being a filthy 54% in both 2013 (from $126 to $202, BUT, there was also a 30%+ drop to $85 on the 2nd Oct) and 2017 ($4300 up to $6700)

October's average gains across the past 10 years, therefore are around 23% for the month with all of the last 4 years being positive for Bitcoin. If we took todays price ($26400) and added 23% of gains, we're looking at a BTC price of just over $32k.

If we look at other scenarios?

BTC's worst October performance(2014) - 15% loss, we could see a $22k BTC (meh, again? We've seen it plenty)

BTC's best October performance(2013 7 2017) - 54% Gain(twice) and we could also see a $40k BTC this month.

Data for the last 10 years taken from Coingecko and I had to go and find the data myself for 2011. Before that and the data is really sketchy, unfortunately.

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Let's add time for u/ra246's thoughts. I'm not expecting anything crazy like 20% of gains, based on average past performance. All I'm doing is DCA'ing while (I think) we just continue to crab along, and hoping to accumulate as much as I can ready for when this rocket does kick off (in my opinion? Around this time next year on to around April 2025)

Here's the link for the chart I've used, and screenshot if you prefer.

https://preview.redd.it/9qt8u806fxqb1.png?1254&format=png&auto=webp&s=09ca2e31c6f67bf5883ef86577fdb59ad1796f2e