Uncharted Territory: How This Halving Cycle Differs

Soo I've noticed a lot of folks here comparing this cycle to previous ones, assuming it's just another 4-year price action. However, I see several key differences this time around:

1. BTC hitting all-time highs before the halving: This marks the first instance in Bitcoin history where the price hit an all-time high before the halving. Two main factors contribute to this: a) The solidification of narratives such as the BTC 4-year cycle and halving, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy, and b) ETF inflows into crypto, a new source of fiat infusion attracting more conservative investors.
2. ETF inflows: This new source of fiat infusion attracts a different breed of investor, usually conservative and investing through tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs. This leads to increased BTC dominance, reduced gains for altcoins (except for ETH), and potentially less BTC price volatility over time due to a different investing strategy.
3. Stablecoins: people are not talking about this, but many stablecoin providers are investing their fiat reserves in US bonds, causing concern for the Fed. It attracted Federal Reserve intervention to align the crypto market with its interest to limit capital outflow and market volatility. The feds will crack down on large liquidity moves.
4. Leverage. Leverage trades significantly impact price volatility, amplifying price actions both upward and downward. It becomes more pronounced as a larger number of people engage in trading with leverage, creating substantial fluctuations in the market. However, leverage borrowing costs are getting TOO expensive, especially on Defi. I'm seeing 25%-30% APR to barrow stablecoins vs 5%-8% last cycle, and if someone is doing 3x or more leverage the rates can be as high as 70-85%. The cost of leverage is prohibitively high and simply not worth it for many at these high rates coupled with the liquidation risk. In addition, it is not possible to leverage with btc locked into ETFs yet. Traditional finance lending rates are historically high as well. Less leverage = less volatility.
5. Retail investors: Despite being retail investors ourselves, the participation during Bitcoin's all-time high lacks the same strength as before. More retail investors will probably join post-halving, but the rising prices beforehand could diminish returns, making everything seem expensive and risky.

Soo...In summary, the cryptocurrency market is evolving and the cycle differs significantly from the past three. While Bitcoin price is likely to keep rising, the pace and overall market behavior will likely differ than expectations. Key implications for BTC and crypto include less volatility, a smaller increase in Bitcoin's post-halving price compared to last cycles, diminished gains from altcoins (excluding ETH with ETF approval), reduced retail investor participation, and an increased influence from governments and traditional finance on crypto and BTC price actions.