This time it really is different

TA is historical representation of the market psychology as related to price action and volume. So what do fib levels and squiggly lines mean? Not a damn thing in this market. All of these are for stable markets which have established trends. That ended for $BTC on January 11th, 2024.

Due to the $BTC #ETF we are in a whole different market structure which is evolving daily and establishing new baselines. Historically a new ATH has not come before the #halvening, yet this cycle we've hit that weeks before the #halvening event.

Any current price prediction model is bound to be wrong, because it is based on data established in the market where limited retail access was driving 90%+ of the price action. Before the $BTC #ETF approval, you had to take CASH and transfer it to a limited number of exchanges, then convert it to a stablecoin, and then purchase $BTC, $ETH, or other products. The number of people participating in the market pre #ETF was extremely limited because of this. Access to the market via retirement accounts was through $GBTC and $ETHE only which didn't have much bearing on the price action due to the Grayscale trust structure.

So what does that mean for the market?

Today, we have 11 funds that are easily accessible by retail and commercial investors. Businesses are not allowed to hold $BTC directly on their books, but they can hold any one of the #ETFs and benefit from it as if they are holding $BTC. Pension funds can hold $BTC in their portfolios, sovereign funds the same. The access to the $BTC market has multiplied by thousand fold to the point that we can't comprehend it's impact at the moment. Now, imagine when companies like @Fidelity, @BlackRock, @MerrillLynch, start packaging $BTC #ETF as part of their indexed, tech, or growth funds?

We are at the point where what we don't know about the market and the future structure of it is significantly bigger than what we have known about the market thus far and anyone telling you that $BTC will hit a certain amount by certain time is just projecting.

We have no idea what the #halvening will do to the #FOMO of the traditional investor seeing this thing going parabolic.

We have no idea what the loosening of the monetary policy and lowering interest rates will have on the overall market or the value of $BTC.

We have no idea what the impact of the #Election2024 will have on the overall market, especially after the winner is announced.

There is one thing that I am confident in, the #Altseason this cycle will underperform significantly as compared to previous cycles. #Altseason starts when $BTC blows off the top and profit taking starts. Taking the profits and aping into smaller projects is the fuel that makes the #ALTseason soar. With the $BTC #ETFs being cash settled, there will be limited amount of profit taken from the $BTC and into the #ALT markets. Yes #Memecoins will soar, yes #shitcoins will soar, but number of people who will profit successfully from the #altseason will be severely limited. Most will surrender their #bullmarket gains because of greed and stupidity.

https://preview.redd.it/lxgy1ff60bqc1.png?1658&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ea7ffb0c6fdcedc4cc6b6b51d77298f2b9728b3