This next bull run will probably be pretty underwhelming

I want to start this off by saying there is still going to be plenty of money to be made this bull run. With that being said, I don't think we are going to be soaring to the heights some of us want to see, myself included.

I saw a post here that "theorized" that BTC will hit a per-coin value of $350k this bull run. We would all love that to happen, but I just don't think it's a reasonable theory. In fact, after I did some basic, back-of-napkin math, I'm not even sure we can crack $100k this time around.

Before I start showing my work, I want to be clear that I want BTC to fly to the fucking moon. I'd much rather see it hit $350k than the figure I came to, but the historical figures show that things are flattening. It's important to keep an objective perspective of these things so when the mania does come you aren't caught up in the greed of the moment.

Let's begin. In my eyes, BTC has had four true market peaks. 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021. The data I will be examining is the peak-to-peak value as a percentage gain. Essentially, if you bought BTC at the top of one cycle, but sold at the top of the next cycle, how much you would have gained.

The p2p gain between 2011 and 2013 was 3558%, enough to turn a $100 investment into $355,800

The p2p gain between 2013 and 2017 was 1362%, enough to turn a $100 investment into $136,200

The p2p gain between 2017 and 2021 was 228%, enough to turn a $100 investment into $22,800

Obviously, the gains between bull runs are shrinking, but what is really interesting is just how much of a decline is occurring.

The difference between the first and second p2p measurements is about 60%, and the difference between the second and third p2p measurements is 84%. Are you beginning to see where this is going?

Now we get into the prediction part of this little write-up. Let's say for the sake of easy math that BTC peaked at exactly $70k in 2021. We know that each p2p cycle is smaller than the last, so it's not going to be a 228% gain, it has to be smaller. Now, since we are working with an extremely small number of data points I'm going to propose a pretty wide range, but I want to emphasize that I think the high likelihood is on the lower end of the range.

If we hold a 228% gain then the peak of the next cycle will be about $160k, this is what I would consider total moonshot territory.

If the p2p gain is 60% less than the previous p2p gain, then the peak next cycle will be about $134k

If the p2p gain is 84% less than the previous p2p gain, then the peak next cycle will only be $95.5k

If the p2p gain is even worse, we may be lucky to crack $80k this time around.

I want to see BTC hit insane numbers just as much as the rest of you. I also want to reiterate that these gains are still way more than traditional investments so the numbers are still nothing to scoff at, especially if you're buying now. What's important is that we take the time today to temper our expectations and develop an exit strategy before the mania takes over.

How vehemently do you disagree with this assessment?