We keep forgetting one big component in all of this: luck. Let me illustrate this, using some of my own life experiences as examples. Here we go:
- Me and 2 friends discover something called bitcoin when it was $40 a pop and litecoin at $2. Poor as church mice we collect all our money and invest it into computers to mine bitcoin. B
y our calculations we could make roughly $2000 a month in total. We ended up doing this for well over a year and during this time people laughed at us and we were literally the joke of our university. A year later due to some personal circumstances and letting haters get to my head I sold all my bitcoin and litecoin (Β±600) for about $100K in total which was a small fortune as a student.
- I use that money to start a business. I had mediocre success and was basically at square one again a couple years later after taxes and other bullshit.
- I go deep into stocks and crypto again, this time I am thinking I have learned from my mistake of selling too early. So now I have invested about $50K in crypto and all is going wonderful until the bear market of 2017 all until 2019 hits me. My portfolio went from $150K to less than $30K during that time and after the gubment raped my ass with taxes I was again, back at square one.
- Meanwhile end of 2019 an acquaintance of mine with the mental faculties of a goddamn baboon had gotten a small inheritance a couple years before that and bought a house. Due to an inflated market he had cashed out selling his house in 2019 and had a couple hundred thousand lying around. He puts it into crypto, and about a year later he cashes out most and is now a multimillionaire.
- In 2020 I had again, after slaving away, a bit of cash invested in the markets again. This time I am sure that I need to take profit again sooner. I now do insane due diligence on stocks and crypto and my portfolio goes from $20K to $200K. I take some profit and think all is well, then november comes around and it is basically down 75% from that. And I had ZERO clown crypto or stocks at this time.
- I did however, just for shits and giggles, bought $2K worth of shiba before it went nuclear. My reasoning was simple; people are so fucking stupid that next to doge I am sure they will buy another fucking dog coin. That turned out to be true and that $2K turned into $18K. I cashed out all of it. If I had held it, it would have been worth $800K.
WHY am I sharing this? The only difference in the people making it and not making it is often LUCK. and NOTHING more. Holding shit for 10 years is a great strategy, until it isn't. Cashing out is a great strategy, until you realize you were WAY too early. Playing it safe and diversifying is great, until life happens and you need to cash out for whatever reason. Do not be fooled; most of the people who got rich in crypto got lucky. Nothing more. That especially goes for influencers in this space.
May luck be on your side.
edit: seems everyone here is a brilliant trader and investor who just holds so I am not gonna respond anymore. You obviously have all the answers and know it better.
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