Markets are assumed to be irrational short-term but efficient and rational over the long-term.
Speculative mania phases never last very long and once the bubble burst reality sets in quickly.
Over the long term markets are very efficient truth finding machines.
The collective wisdom and intelligence of markets is bigger than the intelligence and wisdom of the average investor in the same market.
If you make a price prediction and you are wrong after 1 year you can still argue that the market is wrong and you are right but if you make a price prediction and are still wrong after 5 or 10 years chances are very high that you were wrong and the market was right.
Bitcoin critics like Peter Schiff have been claiming that Bitcoin is worth 0 for 10 years and the market has been telling them they are wrong for 10 years.
Assuming that Schiff is right that would not only mean the market which is an efficient pricing machine over the long term is irrational and getting even more irrational over time. Historically this is not how markets have worked.
If we look at other bubbles in history we find the railroad mania, the tulip bubble and the dotcom bubble. All of these had speculative mania, unsophisticated investor participation and overpriced shares and assets which turned out to be worthless. Collapse of the market was seen within 2 years of mania onset. The market was very good at figuring out that the assets were mispriced and corrected itself like it should have.
Bitcoin has seen several bull markets so far that ended in what resembled a speculative mania which corrected itself in less than 2 years. The market corrected itself like it should have.
Bitcoin had listings in major futures exchanges since 2017. It's not a closed or small obscure market.
I don't think in history of finance there have been cases of speculative mania phases that lasted over 10 years and had several 70% corrections and longer bear markets.
If someone believes the value is 0 they believe in perpetual and complete failure of the market to price a fairly large market cap asset, essentially they don't believe in markets at all.
If they don't believe in free markets, what do they believe in then? Central planning?
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