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S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin - Accounting for inflation / Money Printing. Thought Experiment. A light perspective from your average bitcoiner. Is bitcoin still out-performing S&P using M2 as a metric?

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Forenote: I'm going to be choosing some cherry-picked data that fits a near-perfect timeline: a little bit over 4 years ago today.

https://i.imgur.com/He6KEVC.png - The S&P 500 September 7th, 2018 - $2871.68. Modern day: $3585.62
https://i.imgur.com/EXjKOCq.png - Bitcoin September 7th, 2018 - $6188.00. Modern day: $19,323.60

Back then, mention of a recession was passive in a sense like, "Oh, well, we usually have a recession once every decade. We're almost overdue for one now."

18 months later, covid hits America and we start printing money (that largely goes to bankers and benefits mega-corporations).

The M2 money supply: https://i.imgur.com/M8L9jcG.png

Inflation: This is hard to actually quantify because the CPI report is based on the average price of an ever-changing basket of cherry-picked goods, that conveniently disregards gas and oil. Let's humor the last CPI report released at the FOMC and say that it is 8.3%. Others say it is as much as 20%. Let's use both spectrums for a thought experiment.

If we go with the 8.3% figure of $3585.62, this means The S&P 500 is actually valued at an actual value of $3,288.02 in "2018 dollars".

However, if we go with the 20% figure that would mean the value of the S&P 500 would be valued at $2868.50 in "2018 dollars".

Now let's apply the same logic to Bitcoin:

Bitcoin is at $19,323.60 USD. That is nearly 3x the price that it was 4 years ago.

Accounting for 8.3% inflation, bitcoin would be worth $17,719.75 in "2018 dollars."

And the 20% figure?, that would put Bitcoin at $15,458.88.

Just some food for thought. If bitcoin goes lower, I'll definitely buy more. For the record, this is cherry-picked data. I'm sure there are companies in the S&P 500 that performed well, as the S&P 500 is itself a basket of companies that gets added and removed regularly.

submitted by /u/sgtslaughterTV
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