I know most people here are very bearish and awaiting new lows due to the macro environment. Yet Bitcoin is holding up amazing since the June 18 low, which suggests that those who are waiting for much lower prices might end up waiting forever, even though we are obviously nowhere near a bull market. If you really hate data, please stay away, and let those who do have our fun. Thank you. ------- (1) It has been 138 days (20 weeks) since the June low. Since then, the US Fed raised rates by 300 basis points and inflation has gotten worse in most countries in the world. Yet the low holds. Inflation keeps increasing, but since the low, Bitcoin doesnt care (2) Consumer sentiment is TERRIBLE. This sub has been bearish as hell and activity is incredibly low. Every positive post is met with lots of skepticism and downvoted. The Fear & Greed index is crabbing at (extreme) fear levels. In the US, CEO business confidence expectations for the economy in the upcoming 6 months is the lowest point in MANY years. Why is this good? Well, extreme bearish sentiment ALWAYS happens near bottoms. I would be worried if this sub was positive. The same thing will happen in the comments here. Association between CEO confidence in economy and S&P 500 (3) We are seeing small glimmers of a change in the markets. The FED hinted at a possible change in policy ahead. Reddit NFTs are exploding. Alt coins such as Doge, Arweave, and XRP pumped hard. Investors are slowly starting to take more risks. (4) Adoption is at all time high. EVERYONE knows that crypto has a bright future. Companies like Google, Meta, Reddit, Visa, Swift, Mastercard - they are all adopting crypto. The dream of veterans in this space is coming true during the bear market! And all while retail isnt here. Perfect. It is like CZ said: Can we go lower? It is possible. But so far Bitcoin is holding up great and I doubt we go much lower. This expectation of much more pain reminds of the bull market, where a year ago everyone was expecting $100K. That never happened either. Im curious what you think, particularly those who are very bearish. I hope for the possibility of actual discussion (without downvoting different views). [link] [comments] |
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