Remember less than 2 weeks ago the posts predicting a crash and even $35K? Some of them had all the right convincing arguments. But one thing they forgot is crypto has its own dynamics. Don't try to bring in traditional market reasoning or even macros thi

Remember these posts from more than 10 days ago?

https://preview.redd.it/p7smg6q32jvd1.jpg?886&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b167f0aca6dd350fda9fad4df797906fbeddd21

https://preview.redd.it/d7flz8062jvd1.jpg?886&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b60f7b3859172deb7fe3cb3a155ed44574635318

To be fair, the OP of the first post put in real effort for a pretty convincing analysis, with interesting points. And I gotta give it to him for making a bold prediction like that, and really backing it up.

But we've seen how time and gain this market doesn't care about your logic, news, macros, etc...

We've seen too many times crypto ignoring the "logical" traditional narrative.

One of the most crazy ones was when Bitcoin ended its bear market and had a breakout during a bunch of worldwide economic crises and an avalanche of FUD.

We've seen great arguments about how Bitcoin can't possibly go up much when we have rate hikes, high inflation, people are struggling to afford anything, we're seeing a recession and an economic crisis, and even threats of a war between China and Taiwan, and threats of nuclear war with Russia. Sprinkle on top of this a little Evergrande, Brexit, the crypto banking collapse, Binance legal woes, the SEC's campaign against crypto, and one FUD after another.

Despite all that, Bitcoin followed its usual script, ignored all that, and had a big breakout from around $20K to $74K.

The breakout happened right at the height of doom and gloom, and "get ready for the Great Depression 2.0".

What do I mean by "its own dynamics"?

I think anyone who's been through more than one cycle can start to understand this.

Cryptocurrencies don't quiet work like stocks, gold, commodities, etc... They are decentralized entities, that work with miners and validators, and have their own tokenomic economy heavily affecting supply and demand, and even the market psychology. The psychology is also heavily affected by the heavy volatility.

Furthermore, it's a market in still a very unique situation where there is one single coin heavily dominating the market, and one system of mining and tokenomics as the hegemon of the market.

"This time is different" and "it's priced in this time" doesn't quiet work here. This market has the memory of a fish and keeps repeating the same mistakes. It's the market that keeps on rhyming and following similar cycles and behavior.

But don't look for an exact linear repetition. It doesn't work in a straight line, nor with exact same quantities. Things cycle in ratios, in a curve, and with elements tapering down. Even short term, the volatility seems to have repeating behavior, going through the same types of phases.

The emotions are strong in this market, hence the overreaction.

It's historically a very volatile market.

Traditional market already have a lot of emotions and overreaction. Take people who already can't handle traditional markets, and put them on this rollercoaster and you'll get emotional overreaction on steroids.

This is also why whenever there is a small candle down, it's all doom and gloom like it's the Great Depression or almost the apocalypse.

And when there's a small green candle it's back to "are we all gonna retire early?".