Traders expect further downside from Bitcoin and altcoins after BTC dropped below a key support level at $36,000.
The U.S. Federal Reserve updated their inflation expectations for this year from 2.4% in March to 3.4% in their latest meeting that concluded on June 16. To tame inflation, the Fed plans to undertake two rate hikes before the end of 2023.
This news has boosted the U.S. dollar index DXY to its best level since mid-April. Gold’s price, which generally has an inverse correlation with the dollar, has dropped to a 6-week low.
The U.S. equity markets have also not been spared. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is on track for its worst weekly performance since January this year. This shows the short-term sentiment has turned bearish and traders are closing their positions to hoard cash.
This has also put brakes on Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery. However, Pantera Capital chief executive Dan Morehead said in the monthly newsletter published on June 14 that Bitcoin has been “this “cheap” relative to its trend 20.3% of the past 11 years.”
Related: Joining the ranks: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and stocks is growing
Santiment data shows that Bitcoin whales, holding between 100 and 10,000 Bitcoin, have been on a buying spree, lapping up about 90,000 Bitcoin in the past 25 days. They now hold about 48.7% of Bitcoin’s supply.
Can the buying from the whales arrest the decline in Bitcoin and will the buying in altcoins resume? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin turned down from $41,330 on June 15 and the selling has dragged the price below the 20-day exponential moving average ($38,060) today. This suggests the short-term recovery may have ended and the bears will now try to sink the price to $34,600.36 and then $31,000.
The relative strength index (RSI) has turned down from the overhead resistance at 55 and dropped into the negative territory, indicating the bears have the upper hand.
However, if the BTC/USDT pair rebounds off the $31,000 support, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. That may keep the pair range-bound between $31,000 and $42,451.67 for the next few days.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $42,451.67 to indicate that the downtrend may have ended. On the other hand, a break below $31,000 will suggest the resumption of the next leg of the downtrend.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($2,528) on June 15 and the bears have pulled the price below the support line of the symmetrical triangle today. This suggests that supply exceeds demand.
If the ETH/USDT pair breaks below $2,180, the next stop could be $2,079.94 and then $1,728.74. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
This negative view will invalidate if the price rises from the current level or the support and breaks above the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move will suggest that bulls are back in command and a new uptrend is likely.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($367) for the past few days. This suggests the sentiment remains negative and traders could be using the rallies to close their long positions.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI at 42 indicate the path of least resistance is to the downside. If bears sustain the price below the trendline, the selling may intensify and the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $257.40 and then $211.70.
On the other hand, if bears fail to sustain the price below the trendline, the bulls will again try to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $433.
A breakout and close above this resistance will suggest the correction is over and the pair may start its journey to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $508.38.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($1.62) on June 15, indicating that the bears are trying to dominate proceedings. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest advantage to the bears.
The sellers will now try to pull the price to the $1.33 support. A break and close below this level will clear the path for a further fall to the next critical support at $1.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $1.33, it will suggest that buyers are accumulating near this level. That could keep the ADA/USDT pair range-bound between $1.33 and $1.94 for the next few days.
The bulls will gain the upper hand after the price breaks and closes above $1.94. Such a move could push the pair to the all-time high at $2.47.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) has failed to rebound off the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern in the past two days, which suggests a lack of demand at current levels. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.33) and the RSI below 41 suggest that bears have the upper hand.
If the price sustains below the neckline, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to $0.21. The bulls may defend this support aggressively but if this level cracks, the selling may intensify and the pair could decline to $0.10.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $0.21, the bulls will try to propel the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($0.40) and then to $0.45.
XRP/USDT
XRP continues to trade below the 20-day EMA ($0.91), suggesting a lack of demand at higher levels. The bears will now try to pull the price below the critical support at $0.75 while the bulls will try to defend the support.
If the price rebounds off $0.75, the XRP/USDT pair could move up to the 20-day EMA. A breakout of this resistance could keep the pair range-bound between $0.75 and $1.07 for the next few days.
However, the downsloping moving averages and the RSI below 39 indicate advantage to the bears. If the pair slips below $0.75, the next stop is likely to be $0.65. If this support cracks, the selling may intensify and the pair could drop to $0.56 and then to $0.43.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) turned down from the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle on June 15 and broke below the 20-day EMA ($23.57) on June 16. The altcoin has now dropped to the support line of the triangle.
If the price rebounds off the support line, the DOT/USDT pair may continue to consolidate inside the triangle for a few more days. However, the downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest advantage to the bears.
If bears sink and sustain the price below the triangle, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The first support on the downside is $15. A break below this level could open the doors for a further fall to $8.
The bulls will be back in the game after they push and sustain the price above the triangle. Such a move will signal that the correction may be over.
UNI/USDT
Uniswap (UNI) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($24.16) on June 15, indicating selling on rallies. The bulls defended the $21.50 support on June 17 but the failure of the buyers to build upon the recovery shows a lack of demand at higher levels.
If bears sink the price below $20, the selling may intensify and the UNI/USDT pair could drop to $16.49 and then to $13.04. Such a move will suggest that traders sold their positions in the recent recovery to $30.
On the contrary, if the pair rebounds off the $20 support, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. The buyers will then attempt to drive the price above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair may rise to $30.
LTC/USDT
The bulls attempted to defend the support line on June 17 but they could not push Litecoin’s (LTC) price above the 20-day EMA ($176). This suggests that bears are defending the 20-day EMA aggressively.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone indicate advantage to the bears. If sellers sustain the price below the support line, the LTC/USDT pair could start its journey toward the May 23 low at $118.03. If this support also gives way, the selling may intensify and the pair may plummet to $70.
This negative view will invalidate if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA. Such a move will be the first sign of strength. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($230). A break above this level will suggest that the downtrend may be over.
BCH/USDT
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($648) on June 15, indicating that bears are selling on every minor rally. The price action of the past few days has formed a descending triangle pattern that will complete on a breakdown and close below $538.11.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI below 39 suggest the path of least resistance is to the downside. If bears sink and sustain the price below $538.11, the BCH/USDT pair could resume its down move. The pair could then drop to $400 and later to $370.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level or $538.11 and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong buying by the bulls. The pair could then rally to $800 and then to the 50-day SMA ($872).
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
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