Once again, bitcoin dominance is rising. Alts seem to be losing value vs. Bitcoin (relatively speaking). If you only started buying crypto in late 2020, you need to see this thread.

Forenote: I'm not a magician, and not a fortune teller. I've just been around since 2017. I'm writing this as a post that highlighted my experience from 2017 to 2018's all-time low, market sentiment, etc. Take this with a grain of salt, I'm not a financial advisor.

Please examine this chart from September 2017 all the way until now: https://i.imgur.com/LdGCHqs.png

The trend that I have noticed is that, relatively speaking, when I have more than one tab open on my web browser watching BTC prices and other cryptos, I'll see BTC drop by 1k USD then I'll see something else drop significantly more. Maybe you guys have noticed something similar?

BTC dominance skyrocketed in Q4 2018 because of trading bots and people realizing that bitcoin was the least-volatile asset back then.

But what's different now from 2018? Well, back then we only had about 3 billion USD of stablecoins in the market, and now the top 3 stablecoins combined (BUSD, USDC, and USDT) are presently about 130 billion dollars, or just over 1/3rd of bitcoins market cap. And if tether did collapse, both of the other two stablecoins would step up to eat their lunch.

I said this before and I'll say it again, and I stand by this thesis: I think there is a chance we could flash-crash into the 12-15k range for BTC. I have no estimates for ethereum. I've heard other people say 600 USD Ethereum might be possible.

One last thing to touch up on: Sentiment/market sentiment. This is mostly anecdotal, no data to back anything up, but at the end of 2018 everyone and their mother felt like the market had failed and all crypto, even bitcoin, had zero utility, use case, or future. I think the reason the market didn't go to zero is simply because of people who were too lazy to sell and the macro conditions (non-crypto markets) weren't as bad as they are now. When you see posts where almost everyone in this subreddit where people think there's no future for crypto then that basically coincided with the bottom.