My simple thoughts on why I think we're early

Two main things which are related:

1. The difficulty in transferring money into crypto exchanges;

2. Popularity of ETFs.

On 1., I've had a lot of trouble recently transferring money into my exchange. Traditional banks and even more 'hip' modern online banks are doing huge amounts of verification, kyc and issuing legal disclaimers left right and centre on the dangers of crypto. Some banks I'm with have very strict daily and monthly limits on transferring money into an exchange. I don't entirely blame them even if it's annoying, but it goes to show how many hoops one has to go through just to move a tiny bit of money. In contrast I can transfer huge sums to an online broker to buy ETFs on the same day - of course this is all to do with lack of regulation and tendency for scams to occur with crypto. I think this will all change one day as BTC becomes a more mainstream asset class - but I'm not entirely sure which way regulation will go. Hopefully they don't make it too difficult to do self custody (and if they do, they'd better provide a solution where they are liable for any losses arising from hacking / technical issues, as they do for Fiat to some degree).

1. The relative popularity of ETFs is a sign of interest of those who want in (whether speculative or maxis), but don't trust themselves with an exchange or self custody offline and/or find ETFs more convenient, especially if you want to establish a position quickly. Again I think this adds to point 1. above. Of course everyone has their own reasons for holding, but I think the relative popularity of ETFs will become lower as BTC becomes more mainstream, as people will not feel the need to have a 'convenience barrier' between themselves and BTC itself.