I’m seeing a lot of posts along the lines of “nobody could predict this was going to happen”, “nobody knew a bear market was coming”, or ”it’s easy to say in hindsight, why did nobody point this out before?”

Look, I get it, everyone wants to be bullish, and for sure, there were more people proclaiming a never-ending bullrun, than urging cautious pragmatism. That is the whole reason behind the Fear and Greed Index. You want to sell in times of greed. And to be honest, you want to buy in times of boredom, not fear. When everyone is panicking, that means we can go further down. When everyone has left and given up, that’s the time to start buying - in the long, boring, months where nothing seems to be happening.

When everyone is irrationally exuberant, you get drowned out for saying the opposite. That itself is a sign of confirmation bias, and one you should be looking out for.

I just did a quick search for dissenting voices from the last few months. There were many more, especially in the daily, but this at least proves that yes, some people thought we were nearing a top (if not the top), and yes, some people took profits before the crash.

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Five months ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ljqx4k/fear_and_greed_index_at_95_please_be_careful/

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Four months ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lpm6g0/is_the_crash_coming/

This one got zero upvotes.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lsozs4/finally_took_profits_for_the_first_time_ever/

2018 survivor discovers the joy of taking profits. Is met with lukewarm enthusiasm.

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Three months ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mpp8jy/when_is_the_crash_coming/

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Two months ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n5ldr3/is_this_the_top/

A whopping 29 upvotes

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n9lfqq/every_animal_coin_is_firing_off_specifically_in/

“anyone getting similar vibes or is it just 2017 ptsd?” Not his first rodeo.

Then there were a couple of posts that actually did get a bit of traction. They’re worth (re)reading:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ncr7nq/i_actually_sold_this_isnt_a_joke_post_im_out_here

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n7nn40/fomo_mania_2017_2021_why_this_time_isnt_all_that/

Around this time, I also noticed a lot of people in the Daily, presumably older hodlers who’ve been around a while, announcing they were selling out of the market.

BUT WAIT, what if that was all a conspiracy? ????

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nd5sic/increase_in_im_selling_posts_coordinated_attack/

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One month ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nn7xls/there_is_a_real_possibility_that_the_bull_run_is/

Man explains why Bitcoin gives greater protection against downside risk, and why doubling down on altcoins in a bear market can be a terrible idea. “But [insert favourite alt] is so cheap! You won’t get a chance to buy this low again! It’s going to replace bitcoin/ethereum!”

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My point

It’s quite easy to be dismissive of TA because in the short term, it’s just noise and essentially useless. Additionally, I’d guess that many of the people on this sub have been here less than six months. That, by definition, is short term. So I understand the scepticism. However, over a longer period, THERE ARE patterns. Not exact “sell here, it’s going down tomorrow” patterns, but “it’s been going up for months, we’re really far from the moving average, every single indicator is saying we’re near a top, the fear and greed index is at maximum greed, there are memecoins everywhere, this really feels quite a lot like 2017, possibly it’s a good time to gradually take profits over the next several weeks” pattern. To dismiss TA is one thing, to deny the fact there is even such a thing as “overbought” or “oversold” is another. Everything follows cycles.

I’m not saying sell everything now, just be aware of a few indicators for next time.

Bonus Post

Back in December 2017, there were a lot of posts from longterm hodlers that they were cashing out. Just like now, they largely got ignored. In fact there were so many, that someone made this Grade-A shitpost, mocking them:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/7jruej/hey_guys_im_cashing_out/

I clearly remember reading this and thinking it was hilarious. The market crashed and entered a three-year bear market two weeks later. OK, the sentiment was wrong, but he was right about one thing: You can DCA out as well as in. You don’t have to sell everything. Better to sell a bit, than nothing at all.

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Edit - I am fully aware that people make predictions every day and are wrong. I’m more saying we shouldn’t be 100% bullish all the time, and we shouldn’t shout down those that are exercising a bit of caution. They will probably win out in the longrun.

FWIW, I think the fear and greed indicator and the bitcoin rainbow charts are worth watching. Those indicators, combined with the dogcoin craze led me to sell off some crypto April-May, and I have been gradually DCA’ing back in with my stablecoins ever since.