EXPERIMENT - Tracking 2024 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – Month Eleven - Up +110% Find the full blog post with all the tables and graphs here. The 2024 Top Ten Experiment features BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE, and DOT. SNAPSHOTS ALWAYS TAKEN ON FIRST OF THE MONTH (data below reflects 1 DECEMBER Snapshot). tl;dr
Month Eleven – Up +110%The 2024 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio is BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE, DOT. November highlights for the 2024 Top Ten Portfolio:
November Ranking and DropoutsHere’s a look at the movement in the ranks eleven months into the 2024 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment: For such a busy year in crypto, not a ton of movement in the Top Ten in 2024. November Winners and LosersNovember Winners – XRP (+319%) outperformed its peers by far this month followed by ADA (+222%) and DOGE (+172%) November Losers – Although up +13%, BNB gained the least this month. Overall Update: DOGE flips BNB for first place. 100% of cryptos in positive territory. AVAX in last place.What a difference a month makes: 100% of the Top Ten are in positive territory now, up from just 60% in the green in October. Over the last few months, DOGE (+375% YTD) has been on a tear, moving from third to first since September. XRP’s strong November landed it in second place (+241%) followed distantly third place BTC (+117%). Eleven months into the 2024 Experiment AVAX is now in last place, up +6% since New Year’s Day. The initial $100 invested in first place DOGE eleven months ago is worth $475 today. Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2024The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio gained $987 in November. The initial $1000 investment on New Year’s Day 2024 is now worth $2,100, an All Time High for the Portfolio. Here’s a visual summary of the progress so far: 2024 Top Ten Portfolio vs. The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT)The first Top Ten Crypto Experiment was started on 1 January 2018 in an attempt to capture the gains of the entire market, similar to the “lazy” approach of the Bogleheads in traditional markets. Much has changed over the last 7 years, including the introduction of index products designed to capture the entire crypto market (instead of manually buying coins and tokens like I do for my Experiments). Like last year, I’m running a friendly competition between The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio and The Alongside Crypto Market Index Token (AMKT). AMKT is an ERC-20 token that represents a cap weighted index of 15 Cryptocurrencies (minus stablecoins) backed 1:1 by the underlying assets represented within the index and completely onchain. Similar to the Boglehead Community, a Do Nothing Club has emerged encouraging a long-term “lazy” crypto investing approach. Since the index represents approximately 95% of the value within crypto, AMKT is an excellent proxy for the entire cryptocurrency market – exactly what my Top Ten Portfolios have been trying to recreate from the start. Here’s the question I’ll be tracking this year: would I have been better off with $1,000 of AMKT instead of going through the effort of creating a homemade $1,000 Top Ten Index Fund? On 1 January 2024, $1000 was equal to 7.2 AMKT. Eleven months into the Experiment, here’s the AMKT snapshot: November Performances:
The November monthly victory goes to: The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio Overall since January 1st, 2024:
Overall lead: The 2024 Top Ten Portfolio A very interesting month for indexooors. Experiment followers may notice that this is the first month in two years that the Top Ten Portfolio has taken the overall lead from AMKT and the first month the Top Ten has held both the monthly and the overall victory columns. This is undoubtedly because of the outsized gainz of both ADA and XRP in November which are each purchased at an even distribution model (10% each) in my Experiment vs. the market cap weighted approach of AMKT. As much as I’d like to flex, I predict my outperformance will be short lived, given the data from the last two years and the fact that AMKT is coming up on its quarterly rebalancing soon. For the more visual, here’s the table I’m using to track the friendly Top Ten vs. AMKT competition this year: Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Crypto PortfoliosSo, where do we stand if we combine seven years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments?
Taking the seven portfolios together: After a $7,000 total investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $32,611 That’s up +366% on the combined portfolio. The peak for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiment Portfolios was November 2021’s all time high of +533%. Special shout out to the 2022 Top Ten Portfolio, which is tantalizingly close to break even point for the first time since its inception in January of 2022. Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking the metric in January 2020: In summary: That’s a +366% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for seven straight years. Comparison to S&P 500I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my Experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P 500 is up +27% so far in 2024, so the initial $1k investment into crypto on New Year’s Day would be worth $1,268 had it been redirected to the S&P. Taking the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the yields are the following:
Taken together, the results for a similar approach with the S&P: After seven $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 my portfolio would be worth $12,269. That is up +75% since January 2018 compared to a +366% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. The visual below shows a comparison on ROI between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments: Conclusion:To the long time followers of the Top Ten Experiments, thank you for sticking around so long. For those just getting into crypto, I hope these reports will help prepare you for the highs and lows that await on your crypto adventures. Buckle up, go with the flow, think long term, and truly don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose. Most importantly, try to enjoy the ride. [link] [comments] |
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