Comparing the BTC chart with the 2017-2021 fractal

I decided to look at the chart and I noticed that the 2023 bull run is lagging behind the 2019 bull run.

Does that matter?

Well, no, but if we take the fractal for the whole thing and lay it over the chart, it has never really been following along, but I've seen lots of people comparing the two charts so I wanted to take a look. The alignment of the bull run tops and the bear market bottoms gives an interesting view of just how much more dramatic the movements were. Had Bitcoin been destined to follow 2019 on the way up, as some people seemed to insist it had to, it would have surged to $36K, paused there and then surged to $52K. That probably would have led to $30K getting retested anyway but that's just an assumption on my part.

https://preview.redd.it/erybsd431whb1.png?1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=679b7b9e8e88f569c6c0075a1f98b90b913928ff

Is this a sign of weakness? Is the bull run cancelled?

I think the bull run is on but it's not going to get the same treatment it did in 2019. At that time, there was an opportunity to recover from the damage done by the launch of BSV (that gigantic dump that took Bitcoin to the bottom, yeah that was right on cue with the launch of Craig Wright's coin (in before "F Craig Wright" in the comments)). That, plus the long consolidation ahead of it meant that BTC could gather some serious momentum on the way up from the bottom. Also, the hype surrounding the halving was well-established at that point, which means that it was likely getting frontrun.

If Covid is a one-time thing, it's plausible that BTC will walk the lines instead of walk underneath them. I don't think that means that it will have a higher top, though. Pie-in-the-sky projections never really pan out and the multiplier from the bottom at $250K is 16x, which is obviously an incredible pump. If it does walk the lines, it'll be comfortably above $40K by the time the halving comes around, it'll hit $50 by mid-2024 at the latest, and at some point before EOY 2025, it'll start to go parabolic. (That's if there's another big rally, which is not a guarantee, but hopefully history repeats!)

My "expert" analysis says that BTC is going to top out somewhere between 100K and 250K during the Sept 2024 - April 2025 timeframe. How did I get there? Well, I'm glad you asked. This scientific method is tried and true, time-tested versus the experts and their own random pulled-from-the-air projections: I assumed the 20x from 2019-21 wouldn't repeat but it would still go up a lot. Please, no pictures...