Anyone else feel like a financial crisis is about to trigger a global recession?

Dubai, London, Toronto.. All I hear is property prices are breaking records and are expected to rise by double digit percentages next year and rents are through the roof by so much that people cant afford to rent. Yet everyone thinks rents and home prices will keep rising. There are very few people who see these ridiculous property values and rental prices as the market top signal that they are.

There is always this level of ridiculous euphoria right at the peak, right before a black swan event breaks something causing a financial crisis and subsequent recession.

Look at these two graphs, the 10 year minus 3 month treasury maturity always drops below the zero line before a recession and this time its on another level. it has dropped further below zero and for longer below zero than ever before pointing to a recession worse than anything we have seen before.

But even more telling is the chart of the fed funds rate and the fact that right before each recession there is always a period of steep rate rises, followed by a year of holding rates steady, then the recession starts right as rates start to get cut. Guess what, the ECB just started cutting rates after a year of holding them steady.

These two data points alone both point to something happening this year that will trigger a financial crisis and subsequent recession.

What does this mean for bitcoin? Stock markets and realestate markets will likely melt down because of a mortgage debt and corporate debt crisis, that will then cause panicked central banks to cut rates sharply but it will be too little too late and all the rate cuts will achieve is reigniting inflation. Bitcoin may drop short term along side stocks for a few months as market chaos ensues, but before we know it bitcoin will start rising again as the safe haven asset it is.

Bitcoin is immune to inflation, immune to bank failures, immune to interest rate sensitivity, immune to payment service disruptions, bitcoin is the one asset outside of the system that hedges against inflation risk, bank failure risk and payment disruption risk. Bitcoin will become the one asset everyone wants exposure to in order to shelter from this financial crisis and it wont just be us retail plebs, it will be Brazil, India, Russia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and South Africa who all want bitcoin as their safe haven.

This financial crisis is going to get messy and the only shelter from the storm whether you are an individual a corporation or a nation state will be bitcoin.