Disclaimer: Our subreddit has had a lot of newcomers these last few days. This post is targeted at them, new people around here that are just starting to understand and earn Moons. The OGs of r/CryptoCurrency probably know all of this because they did the math themselves or read it somewhere else.

Disclaimer 2: This post is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and consider your own circumstances before making any investment decisions.

Hi there,

As we all know, the rising popularity of Moons & r/CryptoCurrency has brought a lot of new traffic and activity to this subreddit. Most are newcomers who had never heard of Moons. Others earned some back in the days and are returning after a long time, and some folks took profits and sold them all and are trying to slowly recover their KM.

I’ve been reading a lot of comments asking if they’re late for Moons, or saying they wish they’d never sold, or they wish they’d heard about it earlier, etc.

Today I want to show you why I think that Moons tokenomics are brilliant and we're in a very early stage of what's projected. Understanding this made me realize that if the best moment to get in is already in the past, the second best moment is now. Let's dive in.

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Supply & Inflation Rate

Moons have a total supply of around 121,135,355 which is subject to change as users earn them through contributions to the subreddit. That’s right, Moons are inflationary, but unlike most coins out there, there’s an interesting plan to deal with inflation.

Every month, the total amount of Moons distributed drops by a fixed 2.5%. For example, 5 million Moons were distributed in the first round ever, and around 1.8M in the last one. Keep in mind that Moons distributed to users are 50% of the amount that are introduced into circulation every Round, while 40% goes to the Community Tank and 10% to moderators. (This means in the last round, around 966k Moons were distributed to contributors).

With those numbers in mind, the yearly inflation rate of Moons is about 19,13% and dropping every month. Moons distribution is planned to keep decreasing until the yearly inflation rate is 1%, making them one of the more scarce tokens that come to mind.

“Eventually, Moons distribution will reach a steady state where the total supply continues to grow at 1% a year” - MOONs wiki

To gain insight into the future inflation trend, let's examine a simulation based on the mentioned figures

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Simulation

This simulation illustrates the projected logarithmic decline in Moons' inflation over time.

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Expected evolution in Moon's inflation by Round

This second plot shows how the inflation will evolve year to year, with the inflation calculated in December

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Expected evolution in Moon's inflation by year

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Even though it may seem redundant, let's look at a third graph that shows the expected evolution in circulating supply

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Expected circulating supply of Moons by Round

As appreciated, the supply growth over time is less and less aggressive, until it reaches a steady point at around 190 millions where the inflation will be 1% a year. That's about 158,333 new Moons every month, with just 50% (79,166) going to users.

To put things into perspective, let’s examine data from the last distribution and observe how things would look like in the coming years. In Round 41, maxers earned 7944 karma, the median was 1.69 karma, the average 60.16 karma, and the ratio was 1.18. The following simulation assumes constant total karma earnings, which is unlikely as more users join and the ratio tends to decrease even if the Moons supply remains constant.

(For more information about how the ratio evolves over time, visit https://ccmoons.com/trends)

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I'll leave the data here for readers to interpret as they wish (feel free to add interpretations in the comments); however, some points are worth highlighting:

• Owning 24 Moons TODAY surpasses what 50% of users are expected to earn in a year.
• A single Moon today is equivalent to the expected median monthly earnings in 2025.
• Holding approximately 2000 Moons could potentially mirror the monthly earnings of the most active contributors in the coming years, assuming a continued decrease in supply and a steady rise in total karma.

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Market Share Percentage and Perspective with Bitcoin

Although this section serves more for amusement, it offers a unique perspective. In the past, we've read about faucets sending users 10s of Bitcoins, generous tips, and pizzas bought for thousands.

We know that Bitcoin max supply is 21 million, and even though Moons have no max supply, we can take the current circulating supply to compare the percentage of market ownership of the two coins.

For instance:

• Owning 100 Moons equates to approximately 0.00008% of the total market share, equivalent to about 17 BTC.
• Further comparisons reveal that owning 500 Moons equals 85 BTC, 1000 Moons corresponds to 170 BTC, and 5000 Moons is akin to 850 BTC in terms of market share.

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Conclusion

The unique inflationary model of Moons, coupled with the gradual decrease in distribution, contributes to their scarcity and sets the stage for long-term value appreciation. As the yearly inflation rate continues to decline, holding Moons becomes an increasingly attractive prospect.

The target inflation of about 1% a year is expected to be reached near round 140, which is close to 8 years from now. Until then, the inflation is being reduced in a logarithmic way every round, meaning that Moons become more scarce, valuable and difficult to acquire every 28 days.